The post-recovery US economy will still be weak and will get clobbered by commodities prices
By now, most smart money has typically pegged the US recovery in late 09, early 2010. ZH is somewhat dismayed to see the assumption being that once the economy gets going again, we’re going to return to the ‘05-’07 levels of good times. However, we have to believe that we are merely going from disastrous to just kind of bad. Specifically, the next few years are not going to be pretty even once the deleveraging of the US economy is over. As we come out of it we’re going to see a repeat of the infamous summer of ‘08 with oil hitting triple digits, except the header is likely going to be reflected across commodities not just oil. So, let’s explore this idea… THE US IS NOT RECOVERING INTO A POSITION OF STRENGTH From a really macro view, 2000/2001 should have been the start of the corresponding secular bear market following the the post-’82 period but thanks to Greenspan’s easy money, we managed to postpone the pain
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The post-recovery US economy will still be weak and will get clobbered by commodities prices